But right now, I'm pretty optimistic that at least we'll start on time, if not a little early and, hopefully, July will be wet.” “So it looks similar to the setup for last year, but that doesn't mean that it will be exactly the same as last year. “The models are suggesting that we'll have monsoon activity show up maybe a little bit early and maybe robustly in July,” he says. Typically, we don’t see “good solid moisture for monsoon activity” until around July 4, according to Crimmins. The average rainfall for the Tucson monsoon season is 5.55 inches, according to the Arizona Daily Star.Īlthough monsoon season technically starts on June 15, according to the National Weather Service, Crimmins says not to expect monsoon thunderstorms until the last week of June, which he considers early for us, and the first week of July. “What the models are suggesting is that it could be wet up front and then it could kind of peter out through the end of August and into September,” he says.Ĭrimmins predicts that this upcoming monsoon will be wetter than usual - but not much above the average. “That’s the million-dollar question,” says Mike Crimmins, a professor and extension specialist at the University of Arizona’s Department of Environmental Science, who focuses on applied research and outreach on climate-related issues in the Southwest.